NOT counting your chickens before they hatch is good advice. Notcounting eggs until they are laid is even better. Such is the casewith the state's out-of-court settlement with the tobacco industry.
On the surface, the state stands to receive nearly $2 billionspread over the next 25 years. On the surface, that's an average of$80 million a year. On the surface, that's enough to finance thestate's portion of expanded Medicaid coverage for the poor.
But legislators have a duty to look beneath the surface.
Projecting 25 years into the future is difficult.
Three things threaten to shrink the settlement money. One is thelawsuit that lawyers Bob Gould and Troy Giatras filed seeking torecover some of the settlement money for individual smokers andtheir survivors.
Where there is money, there is a lawyer these days.
What's even more disturbing is the legislative attitude towardthis lawsuit. At a legislative meeting this week, Senate FinanceChairman Oshel Craigo, D-Putnam, said, "The way I see it, it's notan issue. There were people raising all kinds of hell about it, butI don't have a big problem with it."
That's not very prudent.
The second reason the state's share of this money may shrink isthe push to spend more on the anti-smoking program.
The governor recommended $5 million. The Centers for DiseaseControl thinks West Virginians should spend $14 million to $35million.
Finally, the main threat against this stipend is the success ofanti-smoking campaigns. Fewer smokers mean smaller payments lateron. The settlement made the state a partner with the tobaccoindustry by giving the state - as they say in gangster movies - apiece of the action.
Given the potential for this settlement to fall belowprojections, lawmakers should be careful not to over-obligate thestate.
Let's not count the chickens before they are even eggs.
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